Be careful what you wish for. MI, FL, CO this week from PPP.

50-46 among RVs. The Gallup LV model at this time of year really works against Dems, but it is the one that gets all the attention.

Yes, I wouldnt worry about these polls.

All is well.  Stipes says so.  All is well.  Don't worry.  Hope, change.  Not picking hillary didnt matter.

All is well.

You're getting verrrrrry sleepy.

Who's the McTroll, the guy warning us of bad roads ahead or the one gleefully asking us to ignore the cliff looming mere meters ahead of our speeding car?

McTroll, indeed.  YOU'RE the mctroll, stipes.  You're working to get us defeated.

You will see where they say the margin is 54-44 among likely voters. The diary title is correct.

n the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/-- 3 points for both samples.

A couple if points.

1. this is a bounce. which will come down

2. the most important internal is that 63% believe that McCain will carry out Bush's policies.

3. Finallt tell me what Gallup's track record has been this election cycle or last one. Not so good.

Obama was a bad debater up until the last couple. And those were with people in his party that had to be careful about how he was attacked.

He will be going up against an experienced debater with no fear of attacking him.

I think it might be tough.

Obama has about 8 weeks to Prevent the " Most Devastating" democratic party defeat in modern U.S. Presidential politics.

With all the domestic & international problems, the millions of very angry voters, the most unpopular President in history, and the Highest Amount of campaign funds in U.S. history in Obama's hands- A lost in November would be absolutely devastating to the democratic party.

With a perceived moderate McCain & the 1st woman VP, it would be the 2nd coming of the "Reagan democratic coalition. If we lose these voters, it would take many election cycles again to win them back.

It would also be the worst lost opportunity in modern political history.

No matter how you look at this, White voters will decide this election. Kerry got 41% of white voters & 89% of Black voters & still lost.

Gore received 42% of white voters & still lost.

Today, even the most optimistic democrats doubt very much that Obama can garner even 40% of all GE white voters.

He is running at 31%-34% of all white voters right now.

Every one white vote equals 4.5 black voters based on current voter population.

Obama will realistically received at least 95%-97% of all Black voters. ( Gore received 90%, while Kerry received 89%)

Obama's Hispanic numbers is pretty much identical with Kerry in 2004.

Therefore, Obama's fate still falls into the hands of White Voters. He will need enough white voters on his side.

Right now, he is having a very difficult time winning over large chunks of White Seniors & the White Blue collar voters.

Even our Union leaders are getting so much resisitance from working class white members.

The successful McCain convention just reinforced the view of many white Seniors & the white Working class.

Obama has less than 60 days to win them over.

Or we will have one very angry & bitter democratic party in November